The incidence of type 1 diabetes is expected to double worldwide by 2040

Stockholm, Sweden – How many people live with type 1 diabetes New modeling data indicates that it is expected to double worldwide by 2040, with most new cases among adults living in low- and middle-income countries.

Forecasts are developed from available data collected in the newly created open source type 1 diabetes index, Provides estimates of type 1 diabetes prevalence, incidence, associated mortality, and life expectancy for 201 countries for 2021.

The model also presents estimates of prevalent cases in 2040. It is the first data set for type 1 diabetes to explain the under-prevalence of premature mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.

“The prevalence of type 1 diabetes worldwide is large and growing. Improved surveillance – particularly in adults who make up most of the population living with type 1 diabetes – is essential to enable improved care and outcomes. There is an opportunity to save millions of lives in the coming decades from During scaling up of care (including ensuring universal access to Insulin and other essential supplies) and to raise awareness of the signs and symptoms of type 1 diabetes to enable a 100% diagnostic rate in all countries.”

“This work demonstrates the need for early diagnosis of type 1 diabetes and timely access to quality care,” said Chantal Mathew, MD, here at the European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) 2022 annual meeting.

One in five deaths from type 1 diabetes is in the age of 25

The new results were published in Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology Written by Gabriel A. Gregory, MD, of Life for a Child Program, New South Wales, Australia, and colleagues. The T1D Indicator Project Database Posted on September 21, 2022.

According to the model, about 8.4 million people were living with type 1 diabetes in 2021, and one-fifth of them were from low- and middle-income countries. An additional 3.7 million people died prematurely and they could have been added to that number had they been alive. It is estimated that one in five deaths from type 1 diabetes in 2021 occurred in people under the age of 25 due to undiagnosed.

“It is unacceptable that in 2022, around 35,000 people worldwide will die undiagnosed within a year of onset of symptoms. There is also still significant disparity in life expectancy for people with type 1 diabetes, affecting On the poorest countries, noted Mathew, a senior vice president of the association and endocrinologist at KU Leuven, Belgium.

By 2040, the model projects that between 13.5 million and 17.4 million people will live with the condition, with the largest relative increase from 2021 in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. The majority of incidents and prevalent cases of type 1 diabetes occur in adults, with an estimated 62% of 510,000 new diagnoses worldwide in 2021 occurring in people 20 years of age or older.

Type 1 diabetes is not a disease that mostly affects children

Matthew also noted that the data contradict the long-held view of type 1 diabetes as a condition that dominates children. In fact, the average lifespan of a person with type 1 diabetes worldwide is 37 years.

While type 1 diabetes is often referred to as ‘children’s’ diabetes, this important study shows that only one in five people with the condition are aged 20 or younger, and two-thirds are aged 20-64, and over One in five is 65 or older.”

Matthew stressed that “this condition does not stop at 18 years of age – children become adults, adults become elderly. All countries must examine and strengthen pathways to diagnosis and care for people of all ages with type 1 diabetes.”

and in accompanying opening notes, Serena Jingchuan Gu, MD, and Hui Shao, MD, note that most studies estimating the burden of diabetes have focused on Type 2 diabetesNoting that “Type 1 diabetes faces the challenges of misdiagnosis, underdiagnosis, and high risks of complications and early death.”

The issue of insulin affordability is fundamental, notes Guo and Shao of the Center for Drug Evaluation and Safety, Division of Pharmaceutical Evaluation and Policy, University of Florida College of Pharmacy, Gainesville.

“Countries need to strengthen price regulation and reimbursement policy for insulin while building support programs to ensure access to insulin and deal with the increasing demand for insulin. At the same time, improve the insulin supply chain between manufacturers and patients while seeking alternative treatment options (for example, substitute products). Vital) will also improve the current situation.”

The study was funded by the JDRF, including four staff coauthors. Editors You have not reported any relevant financial relationships.

Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology. Posted online September 13, 2022. Summary, editorial

Miriam E. Tucker is a freelance journalist based in the Washington, DC area. She is a regular contributor to Medscape, with other work appearing in The Washington Post, NPR’s Shots blog, and Diabetes Forecast. It’s on Twitter: @MiriamETucker.

For more diabetes and endocrinology news, follow us on Twitter And the Facebook.